第一创业-宏观利率周报：PMI反弹并不意味着悲观预期修复

2017 S1080510120001 S1080116070058 PMI 0755-23838251 zengzhiwei@fcsc.com   ——  7 5 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 1 6 49.6% PMI50.4% 6 PMI 50.4% 1 6 PMI51.7% 6 PMI 0.5 51.2% PMI54.9% 54.5% 6 51.7% 5 PMI 6 0.8 PMI PMI WIND 6 51.2% 5 54.4% 5 6 5 1 1.2 6 52.0% 48.6% 5 0.1 6 49.1% 5 53.1% 1.3 6 46.3% 50.4% 1.5 5 5 5 6 0.8 0.3 0.9 6 6 PPI 2 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 2 WIND 6 PMI 6 PMI 6 5 6 PMI 6 GDP 2013 PMI 50% 10% 6.5% PMI PMI 6 5.44 5.55% 5 6 6 6 PMI PMI PMI PMI PMI52.7% 5 0.8 6 PMI 1.5 PMI50.1% 5 6 PMI50.5% 0.9 5 3 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 3 2013 PMI WIND 4 6 PMI WIND 5 WIND 4 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 6 6 WIND 7 6 WIND 6 6 PMI PMI PMI 6 7 2 2.1 6 ISM Markit PMI 8-9 5 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 6 ISM PMI Markit PMI ISM PMI57.8% 5 2.9 6 Markit PMI 52% 5 2016 9 6 ISM Markit ISM 2014 8 0.7 PMI PMI 6 ISM 54% 5 59.5% 49% 6 5 5 PMI 0.5 63.5% 2 2.5 62.4% 5 6 5 4 6 50.5% 6 5.5 5.3 5 55% 1 5 6 Markit 1.1 1.9 PMI 6 Markit 6 2016 9 Markit PMI ISM Markit —— ISM PMI 52.6% 51.6% 6 5 5 ISM PMI Markit PMI 8-9 8 6 ISM PMI Markit PMI WIND 6 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 9 ISM PMI WIND 10 Markit PMI WIND 11 ISM Markit PMI WIND 7 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 5 5 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 5 PCE 1.5% 6 97.1 5 PCE 0.1% 0.2% 5 PCE 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% 1.4% 95.1 2016 11 5 PCE 2% —— 12 5 WIND 8 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 13 5 WIND 14 6 2016 11 WIND 2.2 Uber 2% 9 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 3 2017/06/26 5 5 5 5 5 -0.8% -0.5% 0.1% 0.49 17.2 -1.1% 0.1% -0.2% -0.26 15.0 24.4% 22.7% -0.1% 6.1% 102.0 4.9% -0.2% 1.4% -0.2% -1.0% 4.1% 108.0 5.0% -0.1% 1.2% -0.2% -272.0 -245.1 -676.0 -0.5% -0.3% -1.3% -5.4% 85.1 11.8 -659.0 0.3% 0.6% -0.8% 0.5% 1.4% -1.6% 2017/06/27 1-5 2017/06/28 5 5 6 5 M3 6 CPI 6 CPI 6 CPI 6 6 23 23 API EIA 5 5 5 5 5 2017/06/29 5 10 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 CPI CPI CPI CPI GDP PCE GDP PCE 6 6 24 17 3.2% 1.1% 2.0% -0.6% 109.2 0.9 2.8 13.0 -1.3 -0.2% 1.5% -0.2% 1.4% 111.1 1.15 4.5 13.4 -1.3 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 0.6% 24.1 194.4 1.9% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 24.4 194.8 2.8% -1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 4.0% 5.7% 100.4 1.9% -0.2% 3.1% -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% -3.3% 6.8% 99.8 -0.31% -0.41% 51.2% 54.5% 51.7% 54.9% -0.2% -0.9% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.8% -0.6% 3.3% 0.5% -0.5% 5.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% -0.6% 2.1% 1.0% 1.3% 5.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 2017/06/30 5 5 5 5 CPI CPI CPI 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 PMI PMI 5 5 6 6 CPI CPI 6 CPI 6 CPI 5 PPI 5 PPI 5 5 6 6 6 CPI CPI 5 5 PCE 11 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 5 5 5 PCE PCE PCE PCE PCE 6 5 5 0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.5% 59.4 94.5 758 0.1% -0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 65.7 95.1 756 52% 43.6 52.4% 43.3 49.6% 50.4% 59.3% 55.0% 55.1% 11.1% 56.7% 57.3% 9.3% 59.6% 54.8% 55.2% 11.3% 54.3% 57.4% 9.3% 52.1% 54.9% 52.0% 57.8% 19.4% 17.0% 56.0% 0.0% 4.3% 54.8% -0.4% 3.3% 53.0% 53.4% 51.6% 52.9% PMI PMI 52.8% 51.5% 51.6% 51.1% PMI PMI PMI PMI PMI PMI PMI PMI PMI PMI 55.1% 55.2% 55.3% 55.3% 53.7% 56.1% 54.7% 55.7% 53.8% 54.4% ----------- PMI 6 6 30 Wind 2017/07/03 6 PMI 6 6 PMI 6 6 6 PMI PMI PMI 5 6 PMI PMI 6 5 6 Markit 6 ISM PMI PMI 2017/07/04 6 6 PMI 5 5 PPI PPI 2017/07/05 6 6 PMI PMI 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 12 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 5 5 0.1% 2.5% --- -2.1% 3.5% -- ---- -85.1 11.8 25.3 24.4 194.8 53.0% 53.0% 56.9% ---------- 12519 0.5% 104.2 117.1 ----- 30536 -- 0.8% 2.9% -55.35 -31.00 -0.5% 0.6% -1.2% 1.1% -0.1% 1.2% ----------- 13.8 4.3% 0.2% 2.5% 62.7% 756 ------- 2017/07/06 5 5 6 6 7 6 FOMC 30 API 30 EIA 6 ADP 1 24 6 Markit 6 Markit 6 ISM 6 PMI PMI PMI 2017/07/07 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 Wind 13 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 14 First Capital Securities Corporation Limited 6 20% 6 5-20% 6 ±5% 6 5% 115 20 TEL:0755-23838888 FAX:0755-23838999 P.R.China:518046 www.firstcapital.com.cn TEL: 010-63197788 P.R.China:100030 9 8 FAX: 010-63197777 TEL:021-68551658 P.R.China:200135 53 FAX:021-68551281