辉立证券-并购推动业绩高速增长

機構股票研究 瀚藍環境 (600323.SH) 並購推動業績高速增長 香港 |環保 環保| 環保 公司研報 27 January 2017 業績維持高增長 買入評級 通過近幾年的加速並購擴張，瀚藍環境形成了覆蓋供水、污水治理、固廢處理、燃氣 供應四大板塊的業務結構，目前供水能力達到 161 萬立方米/日，餐廚垃圾處理規模達 到 850 噸/日，並擁有 19 個總規模爲 15350 噸/日的垃圾焚燒發電專案，21 個總規模爲 60 萬噸/日的汙水處理專案，而且還與國際危廢處理巨頭-德國瑞曼迪斯成立合資公司 首次涉足危廢處理市場。 目前固廢處理業務是公司的核心盈利來源，2016 上半年貢獻了 41.78%的稅前淨利潤， 其毛利率高達 44.19%，遠高於 34.02%的整體毛利率。2016 前三季度公司實現整體收 入 27.08 億，完成全年收入指引 37 億的 73.2%，歸屬淨利潤 4.33 億元，同比增長 35.4%，成本費用率下降 3.1 個百分點至 80.69%，符合低於 85%的目標，成本管控良 好。淨利率大幅上升 3.4 個百分點至 17.5%，盈利能力提升顯著。 現價: RMB 14.56 (現價截至 1 月 25 日) 目標價: RMB 18.20 (25%) 公司資料 普通股股東 (百萬股) : 市值 (RMB 百萬元) : 52 周 最高價/最低價 (RMB 元) : 主要股東， 主要股東， % 1 個月 2.41 1.76 60 瀚藍環境 上證綜指 50 40 17.98 佛山市南海供水集团有限公司 股價表現， 股價表現， % 跪珛昢禱瞳薹(%) 跪珛昢禱瞳薹 766 11,080 16.25/11.01 3 個月 -5.38 -6.63 1年 14.16 9.24 股價 & 恒生指數 30 20 10 0 2011-12-31 2012-12-31 嘐煙揭燴珛昢 拹阨揭燴珛昢 2013-12-31 珛昢 淕极禱瞳薹 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 鼎阨珛昢 Source：Wind,Phillip Secutities(HK)Research 固廢處理業務持續發力 2014 年對創冠中國 100%股權的收購，使得公司在垃圾處理領域的産能躋身行業前 列，並初步完成了全國業務佈局。截止目前創冠中國轄下共有 16 個專案，總處理規模 爲 11350 噸/日，其中黃石二期專案及大連專案預計於 2017 年初投産，福清二期待調 試完成後預計將很快投入運營，預期 2017 年將新增投産産能 1700 噸/日。 綠電公司轄下南海産業園擁有 2 個合計 3000 噸/日的垃圾焚燒處理專案，目前均已滿 負荷運行。此外，2 月份新收購了漳州中雁 70%股權，新增處理規模 1000 噸/日，9 月 底中標順控環投增資擴股專案，雙方將合作運營順德固廢産業園專案，垃圾處理規模 達 3000 噸/日。我們預期，公司將以固廢處理爲發力點持續加大資本支出，加快業務 擴張與市場開拓，繼續完善在全國的業務佈局。 Page | 1 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財務資料 RMB mn Revenue Net Profit P/E,x EPS,RMB P/B, x BVPS, RMB ROE, % FY14 2,435 309 29.7 0.49 3.1 4.64 9.3 FY15 3,357 403 27.5 0.53 2.5 5.73 9.2 FY16E FY17E 3,775 4,308 535 653 20.8 17.1 0.70 0.85 2.3 2.1 6.34 7.05 11.0 12.1 Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研究分析員 王彥囡 (+ 86 21 51699400-107) wangyannan@phillip.com.cn 瀚蓝环境(000035.SZ) 公司報告 瀚蓝环境 公司報告 2015爛茠珛彶賦凳 5% 22% 嘐煙揭燴珛昢 31% 珛昢 鼎阨珛昢 拹阨揭燴珛昢 42% Source：Wind,Phillip Secutities(HK)Research 財務概況 2016 年 3 季度末公司擁有貨幣資金 9.64 億，較 15 年底減少 30%，應收賬款賬 面淨額較 15 年底增加 7200 萬元，主要因固廢業務規模擴大、政府結算進度延 後等導致。資産負債率爲 57.41%，流動比率和速動比率分別爲 0.56、0.50，反 映其快速擴張中較高的資本開支需求。10 月份公司發行了票面利率爲 3.05%的 10 億元公司債券（共 20 億，分期發行），預期將爲公司提供充裕流動資金，推 動業務快速發展，同時也有助於優化債務結構，增強資金實力。 笙昢煤蚚薹(%) 笙昢煤蚚薹 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 011-12 -31 2012-12-3 1 2013-12-31 2014 -12-31 2 015-12 -31 2016-09-3 0 Source：Wind,Phillip Secutities(HK)Research 估值評級 整體而言，公司水務、燃氣、固廢各業務板塊盈利穩定，現金流獲取能力較 強，而且在固廢領域擁有完整産業鏈，競爭優勢顯著，在固廢領域的拓展及並 購值得重點關注。我們預測公司 2016-2017 年收入將分別達到 37.75 億元、 43.08 億元,淨利潤分別爲 5.35 億元、6.53 億元,EPS 分別爲 0.70 元、0.85 元,給予 目標價 18.2 元，爲“買入”評級。(現價截至 1 月 25 日) Page | 2 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 瀚蓝环境(000035.SZ) 公司報告 瀚蓝环境 公司報告 Source：Wind,Phillip Secutities(HK)Research Pe er Comparison(PE-TTM) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ Source：Wind,Phillip Secutities(HK)Research 風險提示 市場競爭激烈； 專案拓展不及預期； 稅收及行業政策變化； 燃氣及汙水處理價格下降； Page | 3 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ ٛ 瀚蓝环境(000035.SZ) 公司報告 瀚蓝环境 公司報告 財務報告 FYE FY13 Valuation Ratios Price Earnings(P/E) 36.4 Price to Book(P/B) 3.5 Per share data(RMB) EPS,Adjusted 0.40 Book Value Per Share 4.22 Dividends Per Share 0.10 Growth & Margins(%) Growth Revenue 13.1% Operating income 18.8% Net profit 22.9% Margins Gross profit margin 38.5% Operating profit margin 26.5% Net income margin 23.4% Key Ratios ROE(%) 9.6% ROA(%) 4.7% Income Statement(RMB mn) 1,001 Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold 616 386 Gross Income - Operating Expenses 159 266 Operating Income - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) (61) Pretax Income 277 - Income Tax Expense 42 Net profit 234 FY14 Page | 4 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH FY16E FY17E 29.7 3.1 27.5 2.5 20.8 2.3 17.1 2.1 0.49 4.64 0.11 0.53 5.73 0.10 0.70 6.34 0.14 0.85 7.05 0.17 143.2% 70.9% 32.0% 37.8% 9.6% 30.5% 12.5% 31.8% 32.8% 14.1% 21.9% 22.0% 31.1% 18.6% 12.7% 31.5% 14.8% 12.0% 33.2% 17.4% 14.2% 33.8% 18.6% 15.2% 9.3% 4.3% 9.2% 3.8% 11.0% 4.4% 12.1% 5.1% 2,435 1,678 758 287 454 (16) 467 116 309 3,357 2,300 1,057 539 498 (83) 576 130 403 3,775 2,522 1,253 570 656 (100) 756 178 535 4,308 2,852 1,456 625 800 (110) 910 214 653 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates (財務資料截至 1 月 25 日) FY15 瀚蓝环境(600323.SH 公司報告 瀚蓝环境 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return >+20% +5% to +20% -5% to +5% -5% to -20% <-20% Recommendation Buy Accumulate Neutral Reduce Sell Rating 1 2 3 4 5 Remarks >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20%upside from the current price Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% downside from the current price >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. 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