高华证券-中国:清洁能源:青睐拥有规模效应和技术创新优势的电池企业(摘要)

页数: 13页
作者: 何方
发布机构: 高华证券
发布日期: 2017-03-02
2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 证券研究报告 青睐拥有规模效应和技术创新优势的电池企业(摘要) 我们认为成本节约空间充足 最近原材料价格的上涨引起了投资者对电池企业盈利能力的担忧,但我们仍好看 受规模经济以及越来越多采用高能量密度材料(如高镍三元材料)推动的长期成 本下降潜力。我们估测,电池组生产成本+利润部分中有 65%受益于规模效应, 而自然资源相关成本仅占总成本的 35%左右。此外,高镍正极材料的生产成本仅 略高于现有正极材料,但前者更高的能量密度意味着可能节约高达 30%的包装成 本,因为外形要小巧得多。 评级和目标价格概要 钴供应的紧张态势将持续至 2018 年… Company Ticker CZMZ 002108.SZ Easpring 300073.SZ GEM 002340.SZ 钴价从 2016 年 10 月的人民币 200,000 元/吨大幅上涨至目前的 400,000 元/吨以 上,主要因为供应紧张以及来自电动车电池行业的需求强劲。我们认为供应的紧 张态势将持续至 2018 年下半年,我们预计届时嘉能可公司将恢复其加丹加省项 目的生产(公司指引年产能为 22,000 吨,相当于全球供应的 20%左右)。 Company Ticker Rating CZMZ 002108.SZ Buy Easpring 300073.SZ Neutral GEM 002340.SZ Neutral Old 27.00 48.40 6.90 Target price New Change 27.00 0% 48.40 0% 7.50 9% Current Upside/ price downside 20.94 28.9% 50.99 -5.1% 8.09 -7.3% 估值概要 Current price 20.94 50.99 8.09 P/E (X) 2017E 2018E 22.80 19.76 48.62 36.44 21.27 32.61 P/B (X) 2017E 2018E 4.05 3.36 6.10 5.22 2.96 2.72 ROE (%) 2017E 2018E 19.5% 18.6% 13.4% 15.4% 14.5% 8.5% 资料来源:高华证券研究 股价截至 2017 年 2 月 27 日 相关研究 …我们认为格林美是主要受益者 中国电池产业挑战:解决增长问题的新途径 我们估测格林美拥有 7,000 吨低成本钴库存,这部分库存在 2016 年下半年购进并 可能在 2017 年上半年确认;我们预计这将使 2017 年净利润增加人民币 10 亿 元。我们预计 2018 年的精炼利润率将回到正常水平,到时供需格局重达平衡。 因此,我们将 2017/2018 年净利润预测上调了 123%/11%,主要为了体现上调后 的钴价假设。我们还将 12 个月目标价格从人民币 6.90 元上调至 7.50 元,但因估 值因素仍评为中性。 沧州明珠 (002108.SZ) 买入: 受益于电池隔膜需求的强劲增长; 首次覆盖并给予买入评级 当升科技 (300073.SZ): 三元正极材料的领先企业;关注利润率可 预见性;首次覆盖评为中性 格林美 (002340.SZ): 在钴回收产业链上处于有利地位;首次覆盖 并评为中性 电动车销售应会在 2017 年下半年重新加速增长 2017 年 1 月,中国新能源车销售同比下降了 69%,主要原因在于中央政府削减 补贴、重新定义新能源车型以及技术从磷酸锂铁电池向三元电池变迁。我们的汽 车业研究团队认为新能源车的销售将在 2017 年下半年加速增长,受益于电池材 料成本下降、市政府推出补贴规划以及潜在实施企业平均燃料消耗量(CAFC)和零 排放车辆(ZEV)模式。 *全文翻译将随后提供 何方 执业证书编号: S1420514050001 +86(21)2401-8925 frank.he@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企 业存在业务关系,并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此,投资者应当 考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视 本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要 信息,见信息披露附录,或请与您的投资代表联系。 投资研究 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Assessing the cost reduction potential Investors have been concerned about battery makers’ pricing and margin outlook, given recent price hikes for raw materials such as cobalt, aluminum and copper, as well as due to the EV subsidy cut. We note that subsidy reduction is being shared by EV component makers, end consumers and auto makers, with auto makers increasing selling prices for certain EV models in Jan-Feb 2017. Additionally, we believe ongoing cost reduction by battery makers will offset the declining fiscal support, mainly through growing scalability and innovation in material. Economies of scale The current NCM pack price in China is Rmb1,600-1,700/kWh (US$230-246/kWh), including material, manufacturing, testing, transportation, and margin. We estimate the four major materials (cathode, anode, electrolyte and separator) account for about 35% of the total selling price; these are subject to natural resources’ demand/supply dynamics and offer limited benefits from scalability (Exhibit 1). On the other hand, we estimate approximately 65% of the manufacturing cost/margin will benefit from economies of scale such as improvement in equipment’s utilization rate and higher levels of automation. This is mainly from module packaging, battery management system (BMS) design, and testing processes. Based on the current plans of major battery companies, we estimate China’s NCM battery cell capacity will increase from 32.2GWh in 2016 to 58.5GWh in 2017 and 83.0Gwh in 2018 (Exhibit 2). This would significantly help lower the overall battery cost, in our view. Exhibit 1: We estimate approximately 65% of a battery’s current selling price is subject to economies of scale % cost breakdown for EV battery 120 BMS Module Chemical material / cell Pack 70‐85 Pack cost EV battery cost 1‐2 100 11‐13 60 7‐8 40‐42 Cell cost 4‐5 6‐7 Cell manufacturing 40 20 3‐5 Transportation 9‐11 Testing 80 15‐30 Gross profit 100 5‐7 5‐6 15‐20 0 BMS Packing cost Material cost Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode Benefited from economies of scale (~65%) No economies of scale (~35%) Source: GGLB, Gao Hua Securities Research 全球投资研究 2 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Exhibit 2: Chinese ternary battery capacity set to increase from 32.2GWh in 2016 to 83GWh in 2018 Battery capacity expansion plans of major battery cell/pack makers EV battery capacity (GWh) Company BYD CATL Hefei Guoxuan Optimum Nano (J&R Fire Protection) Lishen Wanxiang A123 China Aviation (Chengfei Integrated) Coslight CITIC Guoan MGL Microvast BAK Battery (Wuhu Token) Far East First Energy (Far East Smarter Energy) Eve Battery Tianneng Power Sinopoly Battery Top 15 battery makers total Other Total Ticker 002594.SZ/1211.HK n/a 002074.SZ 300116.SZ n/a n/a 002190.SZ 1043.HK 000839.SZ n/a 300088.SZ 600869.SH 300014.SZ 0819.HK n/a 2016E LFP NCM/NCA Other 10.0 3.8 3.8 3.4 2.2 0.2 10.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.4 0.6 1.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.5 3.5 8.0 1.4 45.6 18.4 1.0 10.9 13.8 4.5 56.4 32.2 5.5 2017E LFP NCM/NCA Other 10.0 6.0 3.8 5.6 3.4 4.3 0.2 10.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.4 0.6 3.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 6.0 1.5 3.5 8.0 2.0 51.6 37.3 3.7 27.9 21.2 6.2 79.5 58.5 9.9 2018E LFP NCM/NCA Other 10.0 14.0 3.8 7.4 3.6 4.3 0.2 12.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.4 0.6 10.8 2.7 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 12.0 1.5 3.5 8.0 2.0 62.9 56.5 3.7 39.4 26.5 7.2 102.3 83.0 10.9 Source: Company data, GGLB Material innovation to drive energy density and keep costs in check We believe the growing adoption of nickel-rich cathode (from NCM111/523 to NCM622/811 and NCA) will help increase both volumetric (Wh/L) and gravimetric (Wh/kg) density. For example, Tesla’s NCA battery pack has specific energy of 167Wh/kg, vs. 110Wh/kg for the conventional NCM523. Based on current metal prices, we expect the key metal mix change from NCM523 to NCA to increase the cathode’s metal cost by only Rmb7/kWh (Exhibit 3), as lower cobalt content partly offsets the greater use of nickel. On the other hand, we expect packaging cost will be 30% lower for NCA than for NCM523. Assuming other production costs remain unchanged, we estimate the pack production cost for NCA is 17% lower than for NCAM523. For example, Tesla has launched battery cell 2170 (21mm in diameter and 70mm in length) vs. previous 1865 type. This doubles the charge from 3000mAh to 60000mAh, while volume increase is only about 50%, thus saving on unit packing cost. Tesla indicates it is on track to reduce the battery pack cost by 30% with the launch of Gigafactory, and is targeting US$100/kWh pack cost by 2020. Exhibit 3: We expect limited metal cost increase by migrating from NC<523 to NCM811 and NCA and the saving in packaging material will lead to double digit pack cost reduction Battery cost estimates by cathode type Cost comparison Weight as % of cathode NCM523 NCM622 NCM811 Lithium 7.2% 7.2% 7.1% Nickel 30.4% 36.3% 48.3% Cobalt 12.2% 12.2% 6.1% Manganese 17.1% 11.3% 5.6% Aluminum 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Cost breakdown (Rmb/kWh) Lithium 19.1 19.1 19.0 Nickel 60.9 72.8 96.7 Cobalt 102.0 101.7 50.6 Manganese 6.2 4.1 2.0 Aluminum Cathode metal cost 188.2 197.6 168.4 Cathode cost increase/decrease vs. 523 5% -11% Packaging cost 220.0 198.0 176.0 Other cost 866.8 866.8 866.8 Total pack cost (Rmb/kWh) 1,275.0 1,064.3 1,035.1 Cost increase/decrease vs. 523 -16.5% -18.8% NCA 7.2% 48.9% 9.2% 0.0% 1.4% 19.2 97.9 76.9 1.4 195.5 4% 154.0 866.8 1,062.2 -16.7% NCM523 As % of total cost NCM622 NCM811 NCA 1.5% 4.8% 8.0% 0.5% 0.0% 14.8% 1.8% 6.8% 9.6% 0.4% 0.0% 18.6% 1.8% 9.3% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 16.3% 1.8% 9.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.1% 18.4% 68.0% 100.0% 81.4% 100.0% 83.7% 100.0% 81.6% 100.0% Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research 全球投资研究 3 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Favorable supply dynamics; GEM a likely beneficiary Cobalt shortage likely until 2H18 Cobalt prices have increased from Rmb200,000/tonne in Oct 2016 to over Rmb400,000/tonne currently, driven mainly by tight supply and expectations of strong demand for NCM/NCA EV battery in 2017. We estimate EV battery will account for 7% of global cobalt demand in 2017, representing 43% of total incremental demand. We expect global cobalt demand will increase 6% yoy to 106,100 tonnes in 2017. On the supply side, we expect shortage to persist in 2017, given that limited new mines are scheduled to come on-stream while existing major mines have entered a stable production stage. Cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) declined 8% yoy in 2016 (53% of global supply), according to Chambres des Mines of DRC. We believe this was mainly due to Eurasian Resource Group’s Mukondo mine as it cut more than 2,000 jobs, as well as shutting down of some artisanal mines that employed children for extraction in dangerous conditions. Artisanal mines accounted for approximately 20% of the DRC’s cobalt supply in 2016. Looking ahead, we believe resumption of Glencore’s Katanga mine will end the supply shortage in 2H18. Glencore suspended production at Katanga in Sept 2015 due to low copper prices (copper-cobalt mine), and is now undergoing a plant upgrade to cut costs. Our European metal & mining team expects the resumption date to be in 2H18. According to company management, Katanga is expected to produce 22, 000 tonnes of cobalt (34% of DRC’s 2016 production, and up from 2,900 tonnes in 2015) after resumption, due to the expansion in nameplate capacity. We believe the incremental production will significantly change the supply dynamics, and could largely fulfill demand growth in 2018E-19E. However, we see uncertainties in cobalt supply in the DRC, mainly because of (1) lack of electricity supply in most of the country, which may curb mass production at newly-built mines; and (2) policy/political overhang from possible presidential election in 2017-18. Despite the recent increase in cobalt price, we believe that cell makers’ affordability will not be impacted. We estimate cobalt’s contribution to the overall cost at Rmb102/kWh, representing only 8% of NCM523 battery pack’s cost. In addition, cell makers are taking steps to lower the procurement cost for other materials, such as anode, electrolyte and separator, in order to keep the overall cost on a downward trend. 全球投资研究 4 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Exhibit 4: Cobalt price started to pick up in Oct 2016 on tight supply and strong EV battery demand Exhibit 5: Major battery materials’ prices have seen a decline, except Cathode recently due to cobalt price hikes Major metal price in NCM cathode Recent price adjustment for major battery material 120 (US$/kg) 100 High cobalt price results in development of low cobalt cathode (NCM) to replace LCO since 2008 Dec-16 Feb-17 Cathode (Rmb/kg) NCM523 LFP LMO 148 95 53 158 90 50 Separator (Rmb/m2) Wet Dry Dry Uniaxial Biaxial 46-48 38-45 20-22 42-45 36-42 18-20 80 Dec-16 Feb-17 60 40 Anode (graphite) (Rmb/kg) Synthetic Natrual 50-55 38-40 46-50 35-38 Electrolyte (Rmb/kg) LFP NCM 71-75 66-70 75-82 74-80 Cobalt Nickel 20 Manganese Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 0 Source: Bloomberg, Gao Hua Securities Research Source: GGLB Exhibit 6: Cobalt shortage in 2016, and likely to persist in 2017 until resumption of Glencore’s Katanga mine in 2H18 Global cobalt supply model Cobalt mine production ('000 tonnes) Project Company Democratic Republic of the Congo Tenke Fungurume China Moly Katanga Glencore Mutanda/Comide Glencore Mukondo Mountain Eurasian Resource Group Big Hill (STL) Groupe Forrest International Etoile Mine Shalina Resources Ruashi Jinchuan Group Other DRC Total DRC Rest of the world Murrin Murrin Glencore Mopani Glencore 73.1% Sudbury Vale Voisey’s Bay Vale VNC Vale Thompson Vale Others Global cobalt mine production ('000 tonnes) yoy % Global refined cobalt production ('000 tonnes) yoy % Global apparent demand ('000 tonnes) yoy % Supply surplus/(deficit) ('000 tonnes) *Mukondo, Big Hill, Etoile Mine and ruashi 2016E production are estimated Increase/ 2016E decrease Location 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DRC DRC DRC DRC DRC DRC DRC 11.4 2.4 7.9 11.4 n/a 2.2 3.7 24.1 63.0 11.8 2.1 8.5 9.6 4.0 1.3 3.0 11.7 52.0 11.7 2.3 13.7 9.7 4.3 1.2 3.0 12.1 58.0 12.8 2.8 14.4 8.5 4.9 2.0 3.9 17.7 66.9 16.0 2.9 16.5 9.5 5.0 1.0 4.3 14.1 69.3 16.1 24.5 4.8 5.0 1.0 3.3 9.4 64.0 0.0 (2.9) 8.0 (4.8) (1.0) (4.7) (5.3) 569 475 1,272 337 400 83 83 182 3,400 Australia Zambia Canada Canada New Caledonia Canada 2.1 1.2 0.6 1.6 0.2 0.2 40.2 109.1 2.5 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 45.9 103.0 -6% 77.2 -6% 72.0 -4% 5.2 2.6 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.3 55.9 120.0 17% 85.9 11% 70.4 -2% 15.5 2.7 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.5 49.7 123.0 2% 91.8 7% 80.9 15% 10.8 2.8 0.8 0.8 2.4 0.4 47.5 124.0 1% 98.1 7% 87.0 8% 11.1 2.8 0.9 0.9 3.2 0.7 47.5 120.0 -3% 96.4 -2% 99.4 14% (3.0) 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.3 (4.0) 132 115 31 47 135 n/a 3,241 7,100 82.2 75.0 7.2 Reserve Production status Operating Production halted Operating ERG job cut Operating Operating Operating Operating Operating Production halted Operating Operating Operating Operating Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research GEM’s earnings are sensitive to cobalt price changes Among the stocks we cover, we believe GEM is favorably positioned in an environment of rising cobalt prices, thanks to its exposure to the cobalt recycling and refining business. While it does not own upstream cobalt resources, the company processed 15,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2016 and its cobalt inventory is benefiting from the price increase. The inventory turnover cycle for cobalt is 5-6 months and we estimate GEM has 7,000 tonnes of low-cost cobalt inventory that was purchased in 2H16 and will be recognized as COGS in the income statement in 1H17 – we expect this to drive a significant increase in gross margin for its cobalt powder / plate and battery material segment. Based on the current spot cobalt price of 全球投资研究 5 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Rmb400,000/tonne vs. average in 2H16 of Rmb260,000/tonne, we estimate GEM is likely to achieve additional Rmb1bn of pre-tax profit in 1H17. However, since we expect cobalt demand/supply balance to return in 2018, we believe cobalt prices will retreat and GEM’s cobalt refining margin per tonne will return to a normal level from 2018. Accordingly, we have increased our 2017/2018 net profit estimates for GEM by 123%/11% (Exhibit 7). We also increase our 12-month target price from Rmb6.90 to Rmb7.50, based on 26x target long-term P/E (unchanged) applied to 2020E net profit (up 9%, from Rmb987mn to Rmb1,074mn), discounted back at 7.3% cost of capital. Exhibit 7: We increase GEM’s 2017/2018 net profit estimates by 123%/11%, mainly to reflect a higher cobalt price assumption GEM’s cobalt business estimates Cobalt price assumptions (Rmb/tonne) Previous estimate (Rmb/tonnes) Revenue related to cobalt (Rmb mn) Battery material Cobalt plate Cobalt powder Total Gross profit related to cobalt (Rmb mn) Battery material Cobalt plate Cobalt powder Total Previous estimates Net profit estimates (Rmb mn) Previous estimates % change 2016 206,295 206,295 2017E 412,590 256,528 2018E 330,072 269,354 1,933 271 407 2,611 4,607 581 880 6,068 5,158 492 746 6,396 407 11 81 500 500 1,124 176 328 1,628 809 1,123 17 102 1,243 1,113 276 276 0% 1,107 497 123% 722 651 11% Source: Company data, Gao Hua Securities Research Near-term EV sales slow, but long-term demand outlook intact According to China Association of Automobile Manufactures (CAAM), New Energy Vehicle (NEV) production in Jan 2017 declined 69% yoy to 6,889 units. We believe the sales slowdown was mainly attributable to the following factors: (1) The need for requalification after the new NEV subsidy catalogue was released late Jan 2017, as the previous subsidy catalogue is no longer valid. (2) Auto makers adjusted their selling prices post subsidy reduction by the central government in Jan 2017 and the release of the new NEV subsidy catalogue in late Jan 2017. (3) It takes some time for municipal governments to launch associated local subsidy schemes. (4) Some auto makers are shifting battery technology from lithium iron phosphate (LFP) to ternary (Nickel Cobalt Manganese, NCM) in order to meet the higher energy density requirement and realize higher subsidy incentives. We believe the sales slowdown is temporary and expect battery material cost reduction and rollout of municipal government subsidy details, as well as potential implementation of Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) and Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) system, to lead to a resumption of EV sales growth from 2H17. The production and sales of NEV are generally 全球投资研究 6 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 backend loaded, with Jan normally accounting for only 2-3% of the full-year total. Also, on 9 Feb, Beijing’s municipal government confirmed its municipal subsidy to be set at 50% of the central government’s subsidy amount. Exhibit 8: China’s NEV production/sales is generally backend loaded Exhibit 9: We believe ongoing battery cost reduction will largely offset the government’s progressive subsidy cuts Monthly NEV production in China Subsidy plan for passenger NEV in China 70 100,000 90,000 80,000 PHEV BEV (Rmb/wh) (Rmb '000) 60 2.5 50 2.0 70,000 60,000 50,000 40 1.5 30 40,000 20 30,000 10 20,000 10,000 1.0 0.5 0 0.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E EV 100≤R<150 (80≤R<150 before 2016) EV 150≤R<250 EV R≥250 PHEV R≥50 Lithium battery cost (RHS) - Source: Caam.org.cn 3.0 Source: MIIT Introducing M&A framework for CZMZ, Beijing Easpring and GEM Our departmental M&A framework ranks companies under coverage from 1 to 4, with 1 representing high (30%-50%) probability of M&A activity, 2 representing medium (15%- 30%) probability, 3 representing low (10%-15%) probability and 4 representing minimal to no probability (0%-10%). We base our M&A ranking on whether a company can become a potential takeover candidate (based on ownership and anti-trust considerations), overlaid by a framework to determine its attractiveness as a target (based on addressable market, potential restructuring, and strategic nature of its assets). Regulation on ownership: Both CZMZ and Easpring have a controlling shareholder (29% for CZMZ and 27% for Easpring). In addition, the largest shareholder of Easpring is Beijing General Research Institute of Mining & Metallurgy, an SOE under the SASAC (Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council). We see least possibility of Easpring being acquired (score 4) and limited possibility for CZMZ (score 3). For GEM, its chairman Kaihua Xu holds 13.44% via several entities and, according to the latest private placement prospectus, Mr. Xu will increase ownership to avoid dilution. So we assign 3 to GEM. Regulatory risks: All acquisitions need approval from the CSRC, which is quite difficult and takes a long time. Especially for Easpring, it is listed in Growth Enterprise Market and it’s prohibited from back-door listing. Therefore, we assign 3 to all three companies. Management stance: We see limited possibility of the three companies’ management teams to be open to a potential bid. (Score 4) Strategic assets: The three companies are all leading companies in their sub-sector with advanced technical know-how and scalability. CZMZ is the top 2 separator maker in China, while 全球投资研究 7 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Easpring is the top cathode maker with exclusive capacity in NCM622. In addition, GEM is the largest cobalt recycler in China. (Score 1) Industry attractiveness: We believe all the three companies are well-positioned to benefit from robust growth of EV and EV battery markets. (Score 2) We see limited likelihood of the covered companies being a target for M&A APAC Utilities Framework for CZMZ, Easpring and GEM APAC Utilities Framwork Regulation on Ownership Factors M&A Rank Weight 25% CZMZ 3 3 Easpring 3 4 GEM 3 3 Regulatory Risks 25% 3 3 3 Management Stance 20% 4 4 4 Strategic Industry Assets Attractiveness 15% 15% 1 2 1 2 1 2 Source: Gao Hua Securities Research Based on our Asia Pacific Utilities M&A framework, we introduce an M&A rank of 3 for CZMZ, 3 for Beijing Easpring and 3 for GEM. As such, we do not incorporate any M&A potential into our target price. (For more details of our framework, please refer to our July 5, 2016 report, Introducing our Asia Pacific Utilities M&A Framework.) As a result, we continue to value all three companies at 26X P/E (in line with the average longterm P/E for offshore leading battery firms) applied to 2020E EPS, discounted back at 7.3% cost of capital for GEM and Easpring, and at 8.4% cost of capital for CZMZ. Key risks Cangzhou Mingzhu: Slower capacity ramp-up in wet separator and lower BOPA film pricing on new capacity addition. Beijing Easpring: Upside: Higher-than-expected demand for NCM622 cathode. Downside: Margin pressure from price hikes in raw materials such as cobalt and nickel. GEM Co: Upside: Higher demand for NCM/NCA cathode/ precursors, higher cobalt price. Downside: Tight working capital cycle; delayed subsidy payments. Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Vincent Yang of Goldman Sachs in the preparation of this product. 全球投资研究 8 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.: Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 2,175.3 (1,654.4) (183.5) -(10.2) 400.9 (73.7) 327.2 0.8 (20.6) 0.0 (36.5) 271.0 (55.6) (0.8) 2,711.2 (1,808.6) (222.3) -(15.0) 746.8 (81.5) 665.3 0.8 (21.8) 0.0 (33.0) 611.3 (125.4) 0.0 3,070.4 (2,042.0) (245.6) -(15.0) 854.9 (87.1) 767.8 4.3 (21.8) 0.0 (9.0) 741.3 (152.1) 0.0 3,462.0 (2,290.4) (277.0) -(15.0) 985.5 (105.8) 879.7 5.5 (21.8) 0.0 (7.9) 855.5 (175.6) 0.0 214.6 0.0 214.6 0.0 214.6 485.8 0.0 485.8 0.0 485.8 589.2 0.0 589.2 0.0 589.2 680.0 0.0 680.0 0.0 680.0 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.16 45.7 (1.1) 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.00 0.0 1.1 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.00 0.0 1.9 1.06 1.06 1.06 0.00 0.0 2.1 12/15 4.1 27.0 28.8 28.5 (28.6) 23.9 18.4 15.0 12/16E 24.6 86.3 103.3 126.4 116.4 33.3 27.5 24.5 12/17E 13.2 14.5 15.4 21.3 21.3 33.5 27.8 25.0 12/18E 12.8 15.3 14.6 15.4 15.4 33.8 28.5 25.4 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) Net income pre-preferred dividends D&A add-back Minorities interests add-back Net (inc)/dec working capital Other operating cash flow Cash flow from operations 12/15 214.6 73.7 0.8 (23.5) (133.5) 132.1 12/16E 485.8 81.5 0.0 (281.3) 0.0 286.0 12/17E 589.2 87.1 0.0 (154.8) 0.0 521.5 12/18E 680.0 105.8 0.0 (169.3) 0.0 616.4 Capital expenditures Acquisitions Divestitures Others Cash flow from investments (227.2) 0.0 0.0 5.0 (222.1) (135.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (135.3) (270.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (270.6) (338.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (338.3) Dividends paid (common & pref) Inc/(dec) in debt Common stock issuance (repurchase) Other financing cash flows Cash flow from financing Total cash flow (99.0) (231.2) 86.3 54.7 (189.2) (279.3) (99.0) 0.0 548.8 99.0 548.8 699.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 250.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 278.2 Total revenue Cost of goods sold SG&A R&D Other operating profit/(expense) EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest income Interest expense Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. Others Pretax profits Income tax Minorities Net income pre-preferred dividends Preferred dividends Net income (pre-exceptionals) Post-tax exceptionals Net income EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Dividend payout ratio (%) Free cash flow yield (%) Growth & margins (%) Sales growth EBITDA growth EBIT growth Net income growth EPS growth Gross margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 156.8 824.4 218.7 123.8 1,323.6 788.1 80.4 27.3 216.1 2,435.5 856.3 965.6 371.4 124.0 2,317.3 844.3 78.0 27.3 117.0 3,383.9 1,107.2 1,093.6 420.6 124.0 2,745.4 1,030.2 75.6 27.3 117.0 3,995.4 1,385.3 1,233.1 474.3 124.0 3,216.6 1,265.1 73.3 27.3 117.0 4,699.2 160.7 363.0 85.8 609.5 0.0 34.2 34.2 643.6 173.4 363.0 85.8 622.2 0.0 34.2 34.2 656.3 195.8 363.0 85.8 644.6 0.0 34.2 34.2 678.7 219.6 363.0 85.8 668.4 0.0 34.2 34.2 702.5 Preferred shares Total common equity Minority interest 0.0 1,791.9 0.0 0.0 2,727.5 0.0 0.0 3,316.7 0.0 0.0 3,996.7 0.0 Total liabilities & equity 2,435.5 3,383.9 3,995.4 4,699.2 2.90 4.25 5.17 6.23 Ratios CROCI (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROACE (%) Inventory days Receivables days Payable days Net debt/equity (%) Interest cover - EBIT (X) 12/15 7.8 12.7 8.7 12.2 46.1 139.3 37.2 11.5 16.6 12/16E 23.8 21.5 16.7 23.7 59.5 120.5 33.7 (18.1) 31.7 12/17E 24.6 19.5 16.0 25.1 70.8 122.4 33.0 (22.4) 43.9 12/18E 24.1 18.6 15.6 25.0 71.3 122.6 33.1 (25.6) 54.2 Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 41.2 5.0 22.6 3.9 1.1 27.8 5.0 17.5 5.0 0.0 23.0 4.1 14.9 4.2 0.0 19.9 3.4 12.7 3.5 0.0 Cash & equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Total current assets Net PP&E Net intangibles Total investments Other long-term assets Total assets Accounts payable Short-term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Other long-term liabilities Total long-term liabilities Total liabilities BVPS (Rmb) P/E (analyst) (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) EV/GCI (X) Dividend yield (%) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 全球投资研究 9 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 Beijing Easpring Material Tech: Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 860.4 (788.7) (77.6) -(1.3) 26.8 (34.0) (7.2) 0.0 (0.7) 15.7 6.4 14.3 (1.0) 0.0 1,577.3 (1,332.0) (126.2) -(1.3) 151.7 (34.0) 117.7 3.1 (6.3) 0.0 0.0 114.5 (17.2) 0.0 2,232.5 (1,811.5) (178.6) -(1.3) 282.1 (41.1) 241.0 2.2 (12.3) 0.0 (5.0) 225.8 (33.9) 0.0 2,526.7 (2,003.2) (202.1) -(1.3) 364.3 (44.2) 320.1 1.6 (15.3) 0.0 (5.0) 301.3 (45.2) 0.0 Net income pre-preferred dividends Preferred dividends Net income (pre-exceptionals) Post-tax exceptionals Net income 13.3 0.0 13.3 0.0 13.3 97.3 0.0 97.3 0.0 97.3 191.9 0.0 191.9 0.0 191.9 256.1 0.0 256.1 0.0 256.1 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Dividend payout ratio (%) Free cash flow yield (%) 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.0 (0.6) 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.00 0.0 (1.9) 1.05 1.05 1.05 0.00 0.0 (1.7) 1.40 1.40 1.40 0.00 0.0 0.3 12/15 37.7 384.5 80.5 152.0 148.9 8.3 3.1 (0.8) 12/16E 83.3 465.4 NM 631.5 578.9 15.5 9.6 7.5 12/17E 41.5 85.9 104.7 97.3 97.3 18.9 12.6 10.8 12/18E 13.2 29.2 32.8 33.4 33.4 20.7 14.4 12.7 12/15 13.3 34.0 0.0 (124.7) 87.6 10.1 12/16E 97.3 34.0 0.0 (145.2) (68.0) (82.0) 12/17E 191.9 41.1 0.0 (239.5) (82.2) (88.6) 12/18E 256.1 44.2 0.0 (110.8) (88.5) 101.1 (37.2) 0.0 0.0 6.6 (30.6) (100.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (100.0) (70.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (70.0) (70.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (70.0) 0.0 41.3 410.7 (314.0) 138.0 117.6 0.0 120.0 0.0 0.0 120.0 (62.0) 0.0 120.0 0.0 0.0 120.0 (38.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1 Total revenue Cost of goods sold SG&A R&D Other operating profit/(expense) EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest income Interest expense Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. Others Pretax profits Income tax Minorities Growth & margins (%) Sales growth EBITDA growth EBIT growth Net income growth EPS growth Gross margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) Net income pre-preferred dividends D&A add-back Minorities interests add-back Net (inc)/dec working capital Other operating cash flow Cash flow from operations Capital expenditures Acquisitions Divestitures Others Cash flow from investments Dividends paid (common & pref) Inc/(dec) in debt Common stock issuance (repurchase) Other financing cash flows Cash flow from financing Total cash flow Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 206.3 473.2 203.2 32.4 915.1 313.2 24.9 120.1 367.3 1,740.7 144.3 734.6 328.4 32.4 1,239.8 380.0 24.2 120.1 435.3 2,199.4 105.7 1,039.8 446.7 32.4 1,624.6 409.7 23.4 120.1 517.5 2,695.3 136.8 1,176.8 493.9 32.4 1,840.0 436.3 22.6 120.1 605.9 3,024.9 269.5 67.0 114.1 450.6 0.0 48.6 48.6 499.1 510.9 187.0 114.1 812.0 0.0 48.6 48.6 860.6 694.8 307.0 114.1 1,115.9 0.0 48.6 48.6 1,164.5 768.3 307.0 114.1 1,189.4 0.0 48.6 48.6 1,238.0 Preferred shares Total common equity Minority interest 0.0 1,241.6 0.0 0.0 1,338.8 0.0 0.0 1,530.8 0.0 0.0 1,786.9 0.0 Total liabilities & equity 1,740.7 2,199.4 2,695.3 3,024.9 7.31 7.32 8.36 9.76 Ratios CROCI (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROACE (%) Inventory days Receivables days Payable days Net debt/equity (%) Interest cover - EBIT (X) 12/15 15.2 1.3 1.0 1.5 81.1 163.0 99.5 (11.2) NM 12/16E 6.3 7.5 4.9 8.1 72.8 139.8 106.9 3.2 36.2 12/17E 12.1 13.4 7.8 12.9 78.1 145.1 121.5 13.1 23.7 12/18E 14.3 15.4 9.0 14.5 85.7 160.1 133.3 9.5 23.3 Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E P/E (analyst) (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) EV/GCI (X) Dividend yield (%) NM 3.5 156.7 4.6 0.0 95.9 7.0 61.8 8.0 0.0 48.6 6.1 33.8 6.5 0.0 36.4 5.2 26.1 5.7 0.0 Cash & equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Total current assets Net PP&E Net intangibles Total investments Other long-term assets Total assets Accounts payable Short-term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Other long-term liabilities Total long-term liabilities Total liabilities BVPS (Rmb) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 全球投资研究 10 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 GEM Co.: Summary financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 5,117.2 (4,240.9) (390.5) -(11.6) 774.9 (300.8) 474.2 7.7 (275.0) 0.0 41.9 248.7 (30.1) (64.4) 6,879.2 (5,820.0) (474.7) -(10.0) 892.4 (317.8) 574.5 15.9 (312.2) 0.0 73.0 351.3 (45.7) (30.0) 11,055.2 (8,693.0) (740.7) -(10.0) 2,009.3 (397.8) 1,611.5 13.2 (379.7) 0.0 85.0 1,330.0 (172.9) (50.0) 11,778.2 (9,727.5) (789.1) -(10.0) 1,702.7 (451.2) 1,251.5 7.0 (435.9) 0.0 65.0 887.6 (115.4) (50.0) Net income pre-preferred dividends Preferred dividends Net income (pre-exceptionals) Post-tax exceptionals Net income 154.2 0.0 154.2 21.0 175.2 275.6 0.0 275.6 0.0 275.6 1,107.1 0.0 1,107.1 0.0 1,107.1 722.2 0.0 722.2 0.0 722.2 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Dividend payout ratio (%) Free cash flow yield (%) 0.13 0.15 0.15 0.02 13.6 (21.1) 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.0 (7.5) 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.00 0.0 (9.0) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.0 (3.2) Growth & margins (%) Sales growth EBITDA growth EBIT growth Net income growth EPS growth Gross margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin 12/15 30.9 20.0 16.3 (24.3) (46.3) 17.1 15.1 9.3 12/16E 34.4 15.2 21.2 57.3 (35.5) 15.4 13.0 8.4 12/17E 60.7 125.2 180.5 301.7 301.7 21.4 18.2 14.6 12/18E 6.5 (15.3) (22.3) (34.8) (34.8) 17.4 14.5 10.6 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) Net income pre-preferred dividends D&A add-back Minorities interests add-back Net (inc)/dec working capital Other operating cash flow Cash flow from operations 12/15 154.2 300.8 64.4 (1,029.2) 211.1 (298.7) 12/16E 275.6 317.8 30.0 (559.3) (635.7) (571.5) 12/17E 1,107.1 397.8 50.0 (2,079.3) (795.7) (1,320.1) 12/18E 722.2 451.2 50.0 (283.0) (902.3) 38.0 Capital expenditures Acquisitions Divestitures Others Cash flow from investments (1,498.6) 0.0 0.0 (1,026.7) (2,525.4) (1,200.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1,200.0) (800.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (800.0) (800.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (800.0) (29.1) 958.0 2,177.6 154.4 3,260.8 436.7 0.0 1,500.0 0.0 0.0 1,500.0 (271.5) 0.0 1,500.0 0.0 0.0 1,500.0 (620.1) 0.0 1,000.0 0.0 0.0 1,000.0 238.0 Total revenue Cost of goods sold SG&A R&D Other operating profit/(expense) EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest income Interest expense Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. Others Pretax profits Income tax Minorities Dividends paid (common & pref) Inc/(dec) in debt Common stock issuance (repurchase) Other financing cash flows Cash flow from financing Total cash flow Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 1,590.2 1,773.4 2,778.3 1,615.9 7,757.8 3,617.2 1,257.0 51.8 3,255.5 15,939.3 1,318.7 2,261.6 3,189.0 1,664.4 8,433.8 4,509.3 1,247.0 51.8 3,255.5 17,497.5 698.6 3,634.6 4,525.1 1,714.3 10,572.7 4,921.5 1,237.0 51.8 3,581.1 20,364.1 936.7 3,872.3 4,797.1 1,765.8 11,371.8 5,280.3 1,227.0 51.8 3,939.2 21,870.2 Accounts payable Short-term debt Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Other long-term liabilities Total long-term liabilities Total liabilities 935.9 3,462.6 1,762.5 6,160.9 2,724.8 270.3 2,995.1 9,156.0 1,275.6 3,462.6 1,205.3 5,943.5 4,224.8 270.3 4,495.1 10,438.5 1,905.3 3,462.6 835.1 6,203.0 5,724.8 270.3 5,995.1 12,198.1 2,132.1 3,462.6 392.3 5,986.9 6,724.8 270.3 6,995.1 12,982.0 Preferred shares Total common equity Minority interest 0.0 6,561.7 221.6 0.0 6,837.3 221.6 0.0 7,944.4 221.6 0.0 8,666.6 221.6 15,939.3 17,497.5 20,364.1 21,870.2 5.50 2.35 2.73 2.98 Ratios CROCI (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROACE (%) Inventory days Receivables days Payable days Net debt/equity (%) Interest cover - EBIT (X) 12/15 11.8 3.2 1.3 4.5 216.1 106.0 77.1 67.8 1.8 12/16E 2.3 4.1 1.6 4.5 187.1 107.0 69.3 90.2 1.9 12/17E 8.0 15.0 5.8 9.8 162.0 97.3 66.8 104.0 4.4 12/18E 4.3 8.7 3.4 6.6 174.9 116.3 75.7 104.1 2.9 Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 53.9 1.3 16.9 1.4 0.3 84.5 3.4 33.5 2.5 0.0 21.0 2.9 15.9 2.1 0.0 32.2 2.7 19.2 2.0 0.0 Cash & equivalents Accounts receivable Inventory Other current assets Total current assets Net PP&E Net intangibles Total investments Other long-term assets Total assets Total liabilities & equity BVPS (Rmb) P/E (analyst) (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) EV/GCI (X) Dividend yield (%) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 全球投资研究 11 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 信息披露附录 申明 本人,何方,在此申明,本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了本人对上述公司或其证券的个人看法。此外,本人薪金的任何部分不曾与,不与,也将不会与本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关。 投资摘要 投资摘要部分通过将一只股票的主要指标与其行业和市场相比较来评价该股的投资环境。所描述的四个主要指标包括增长、回报、估值倍数和波动性。增长、 回报和估值倍数都是运用数种方法综合计算而成,以确定该股在地区研究行业内所处的百分位排名。 每项指标的准确计算方式可能随着财务年度、行业和所属地区的不同而有所变化,但标准方法如下: 增长是下一年预测与当前年度预测的综合比较,如每股盈利、EBITDA 和收入等。 回报是各项资本回报指标一年预测的加总,如 CROCI、平均运用资本回报率 和净资产回报率。 估值倍数根据一年预期估值比率综合计算,如市盈率、股息收益率、EV/FCF、EV/EBITDA、EV/DACF、市净率。 波动性根据 12 个月的历史 波动性计算并经股息调整。 Quantum Quantum 是提供具体财务报表数据历史、预测和比率的高盛专有数据库,它可以用于对单一公司的深入分析,或在不同行业和市场的公司之间进行比较。 GS SUSTAIN GS SUSTAIN 是侧重于长期做多建议的相对稳定的全球投资策略。GS SUSTAIN 关注名单涵盖了我们认为相对于全球同业具有持续竞争优势和出色的资本回 报、因而有望在长期内表现出色的行业领军企业。我们对领军企业的筛选基于对以下三方面的量化分析:现金投资的现金回报、行业地位和管理水平(公司管 理层对行业面临的环境、社会和企业治理方面管理的有效性)。 信息披露 相关的股票研究范围 何方:A 股燃气和太阳能、中国燃气和太阳能。 A 股燃气和太阳能:隆基股份、科陆电子、阳光电源、金风科技。 中国燃气和太阳能:当升科技、北京控股、阿特斯、沧州明珠、中国燃气、华润燃气、新天绿色能源、新奥能源、保利协鑫、格林美、晶科能源、昆仑能源、 兴业太阳能、中石化冠德、天合化工、港华燃气、天合光能、金风科技 (H)、信义光能。 与公司有关的法定披露 以下信息披露了高盛高华证券有限责任公司(“高盛高华”)与北京高华证券有限责任公司(“高华证券”)投资研究部所研究的并在本研究报告中提及的公司之间 的关系。 没有对下述公司的具体信息披露: 当升科技 (Rmb50.99)、沧州明珠 (Rmb20.69)、格林美 (Rmb8.08) 公司评级、研究行业及评级和相关定义 买入、中性、卖出:分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单。一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定。 任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级。每个地区投资评估委员会根据 25-35%的股票评级为买入、10-15%的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来 管理该地区的投资名单;但是,在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同。地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回 报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议。 潜在回报:代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差。分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格。潜在回报、目标价格及相关时间范围在 每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明。 研究行业及评级:分析师给出下列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及/或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法。 具吸引力(A):未来 12 个月内投资前 景优于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值。 中性(N):未来 12 个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值持平。 谨慎(C):未来 12 个月内投资前景 劣于研究范围的历史基本面及/或估值。 暂无评级(NR):在高盛高华于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下,投资评级和目标价格已经根据高华证券的政策予 以除去。 暂停评级(RS):由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标,或在发表报告方面存在法律、监管或政策的限制,我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投 资评级和价格目标。此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标(如有的话)将不再有效,因此投资者不应依赖该等资料。 暂停研究(CS):我们已经暂停对该公司 的研究。 没有研究(NC):我们没有对该公司进行研究。 不存在或不适用(NA):此资料不存在或不适用。 无意义(NM):此资料无意义,因此不包括在报告内。 一般披露 本报告在中国由高华证券分发。高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格。 本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用。除了与高盛相关的披露,本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息,但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性,客 户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的。报告中的信息、观点、估算和预测均截至报告的发表日,且可能在不事先通知的情况下进行调整。我们会适时地更新 我们的研究,但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做。除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外,绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版。 高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构,从事投资银行业务。高华证券、高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关 系。 我们的销售人员、交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略。我们的资 产管理部门、自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策。 全球投资研究 12 2017 年 3 月 1 日 中国:清洁能源 本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论,或在本报告中讨论交易策略,其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券 市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件,该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反。任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基 本评级,此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力。 高华证券及其关联机构、高级职员、董事和雇员,不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师,将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸,担 任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手,或买卖上述证券或衍生工具。 在高盛组织的会议上的第三方演讲嘉宾(包括高华证券或高盛其它部门人员)的观点不一定反映全球投资研究部的观点,也并非高华证券或高盛的正式观点。 在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区,本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也没有考虑到个别 客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需求。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,以及(若有必要)寻求专家的意见,包括税务意见。本报告 中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动。过去的表现并不代表未来的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 某些交易,包括牵涉期货、期权和其它衍生工具的交易,有很大的风险,因此并不适合所有投资者。外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一 投资的收入产生不良影响。 投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过 http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp 取得当前的期权披露文件。对于包含多重期权买卖的期权 策略结构产品,例如,期权差价结构产品,其交易成本可能较高。与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供。 所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在高华客户网上并向所有客户同步提供。高华未授权任何第三方整合者转发其研究报告。有关某特定证券的研究报 告、模型或其它数据,请联络您的销售代表。 北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 © 2017 年 未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意,本材料的任何部分均不得(i)以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品,或(ii)再次分发。 全球投资研究 13
中国:清洁能源:青睐拥有规模效应和技术创新优势的电池企业(摘要)
提示:通过电脑端浏览器访问本站体验更佳哦! 免费查看研报全文
高华证券 - 中国:清洁能源:青睐拥有规模效应和技术创新优势的电池企业(摘要)
页码: /
该研报暂无在线预览,请下载后查看!
Loading...
中国:清洁能源:青睐拥有规模效应和技术创新优势的电池企业(摘要)
声明:本站内容均收集整理于互联网,目的在于传递更多信息,并不代表本站及子站赞同其观点和对其真实性负责,我们仅如实呈现供网友学习和参考。如有侵权和不妥请联系(hello#ulapia.com)告知,我们会立即删除。
分享
客服