中金公司-1H results under pressure; feedstuff business has room to improve

页数: 9页
行业: 农牧饲渔
发布机构: 中金公司
发布日期: 2017-08-25
Equity Research August 25, 2017 Wellhope Agri-Tech Joint Stock 1H results under pressure; feedstuff business has room to improve Results Review Maintain BUY 1H17 net profit -41.59% YoY, misses expectations Wellhope Agri-Tech Joint Stock announced its 1H17 results: Revenue was Rmb6bn (+18.77% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb108mn (-41.59% YoY) or Rmb0.13/share. Trends to watch ► Feedstuff business missed expectations, leading to a decline in overall earnings. Ticker 603609.SH CICC investment rating Last close CICC target BUY Rmb 9.36 Rmb 11.50 52wk price range Market cap (bn) Daily value (mn) Shares outstanding (mn) Free float (%) Daily volume (mn sh) Business sector Rmb 16.02~8.57 Rmb8 Rmb 58.78 831 100 6.31 Agriculture ► Feedstuff business may have upside in 2H17. we See page 3 for details Valuation and recommendation The stock is trading at 18.2x/14.5x 2017/18e P/E. Considering feedstuff business missed expectations, but may have upside in 2H17, we maintain our BUY rating, but lower our TP 4.17% to Rmb11.50, implying 22.86% upside room from the current price. Risks Fluctuation of raw materials prices; downturn in the breeding industry; animal diseases; actual controller risk. CSI 300 100 Earnings forecast We cut our 2017/18 earnings forecasts by 14%/6% from Rmb0.60/0.69 to Rmb0.51/0.65. 603609.SH 114 expect Relative Value (%) ► Slaughtering business sluggish; sequential improvement in 2H17. 86 72 58 44 Aug-2016 Nov-2016 Feb-2017 May-2017 Aug-2017 (Rmb mn) 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Revenue 9,696 11,871 14,072 16,786 (+/-) 6.1% 22.4% 18.5% 19.3% Net profit 314 427 427 536 (+/-) 26.3% 35.9% -0.1% 25.7% EPS 0.38 0.51 0.51 0.65 BPS 3.20 3.62 4.03 4.58 DPS 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.13 CPS 0.56 0.25 0.54 0.62 P/E 24.8 18.2 18.2 14.5 P/B 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 14.7 13.8 13.4 12.3 Dividend yield 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% ROAA 8.1% 9.2% 7.9% 8.9% ROAE 12.5% 15.1% 13.4% 15.0% EV/EBITDA Source: Wind, Bloomberg, company data, CICC Research Yang SUN Paul Feiyang YUAN Associate Yang3.Sun@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080516050001 Analyst feiyang.yuan@cicc.com.cn SAC Reg. No.: S0080511030012 SFC CE Ref: AIZ727 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report CICC Research: August 25, 2017 Financial summary Financial statement (Rmb mn) Income statement Revenue Operating costs Business tax and surcharges Selling expenses Administrative expenses Finance costs Others Operating profit Non-operating income and expense Profit before income tax Income tax Minority interest Net profit EBITDA Balance sheet Cash and bank balances Trade and bill receivables Prepayments Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Fixed assets and CIP Intangible assets Total non-current assets Total assets ST borrowings Trade and bill payables Other current liabilities Total current liabilities LT borrowings and bonds payable Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Shareholders' equity Minority interest Total liabilities & equity Cash flow statement Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital Others Cash flow from operations Cash inflows from investing activities Cash outflows from investing activities Cash flow from investing Equity financing Bank borrowings Others Cash flow from financing Foreign exchange gain (loss) Net changes in cash 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 9,696 11,871 14,072 16,786 8,696 10,727 12,786 15,320 1 15 15 15 330 370 436 504 254 285 338 403 43 45 52 52 0 0 0 0 377 524 512 646 47 138 109 196 409 548 536 670 85 85 96 121 10 36 13 13 314 427 427 536 539 612 635 696 736 707 615 606 214 316 375 447 138 229 273 328 937 1,196 1,425 1,707 127 179 191 205 2,153 2,627 2,879 3,293 1,327 1,592 1,739 1,880 252 416 524 624 1,959 2,542 2,797 3,039 4,112 5,169 5,676 6,332 568 991 981 981 310 447 541 648 280 355 422 504 1,158 1,793 1,944 2,133 30 50 50 50 30 55 55 55 1,188 1,848 1,999 2,188 2,662 3,006 3,350 3,803 262 315 328 341 4,112 5,169 5,676 6,332 324 463 439 549 124 139 138 152 -113 291 183 234 -96 -105 52 52 465 205 446 519 0 0 0 0 136 564 393 393 -136 -564 -393 -393 119 34 0 0 -52 426 -10 0 0 0 0 0 -60 331 -145 -135 0 0 0 0 269 -28 -92 -9 Financial ratios Growth ability Revenue Operating profit EBITDA Net profit Profitability Gross margin Operating margin EBITDA margin Net margin Liquidity Current ratio Quick ratio Cash ratio Liability / asset Net debt / equity Return RoA RoE Per-share data EPS (Rmb) BPS (Rmb) DPS (Rmb) Cash flow per share (Rmb) Valuation P/E P/B EV/EBITDA Dividend yield 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 6.1% 22.4% 18.5% 19.3% 28.2% 39.0% -2.3% 26.2% 21.6% 13.5% 3.7% 9.6% 26.3% 35.9% -0.1% 25.7% 10.3% 9.6% 9.1% 8.7% 3.9% 4.4% 3.6% 3.8% 5.6% 5.2% 4.5% 4.1% 3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 1.86 1.46 1.48 1.54 1.05 0.80 0.75 0.74 0.63 0.39 0.32 0.28 28.9% 35.8% 35.2% 34.6% net cash 9.1% 10.9% 9.9% 8.1% 9.2% 7.9% 8.9% 12.5% 15.1% 13.4% 15.0% 0.38 0.51 0.51 0.65 3.20 3.62 4.03 4.58 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.56 0.25 0.54 0.62 24.8 18.2 18.2 14.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 14.7 13.8 13.4 12.3 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% Source: Company data, CICC Research Company description Liaoning Wellhope Agri-Tech Joint Stock Co., Ltd. is one of the largest feed company in northeastern China. Its corn business includes mixed feed, premix feed and concentrated feed. Now the company has stretched its business to raw materials trade, slaughter processing, breeding and other related fields. Its main producing and selling areas are the northeastern Provinces of China. Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 2 CICC Research: August 25, 2017 Trends to watch in full ► Feedstuff business missed expectation, leading to a decline in overall earnings. The 2Q17 feedstuff business missed expectations. We believe the reasons are as follows: First, some farmers in the northeast region used concentrated materials to substitute for full materials, affecting the feedstuff revenue and sales volume of the company. Second, the government announced in 1Q17 that the feedstuff-processing subsidy would be provided in the northeast region this year, and likely delivered in 3Q17. This may drive feedstuff companies in the northeast region to cut prices to fight for market share. Wellhope did not receive the subsidy in 2Q17, but the firm cut prices to protect market share. This affected the gross profit per tonne in feedstuff business. ► Feedstuff business may have upside in 2H17. Restocking trend in hog breeding industry: In 1Q and 2Q17, the national pig feed output increased 15% and 10% YoY, and we expect the overall industrial output growth to in double-digits in 3Q17. Recovery of gross profit per tonne: The fluctuation in raw material prices squeezed gross profit per tonne in the industry in 2H16. The gross profit per tonne recovered in 1H17, and it may see a YoY rise in 2H17 on a low base. Wellhope should receive feedstuff processing subsidy in 3Q17 (no more than Rmb50mn), which will support an increase of earnings. ► Slaughtering business sluggish; we expect sequential improvement in 2H17. Only 40% of the slaughtering business is the equity part, and the investment gain can be used as an indicator of the operating status of the slaughtering business. In 1H17, investment gain declined 35.2% to Rmb33.25mn, implying pressure on slaughtering business. This was mainly due to avian influenza in 1H17 and sluggish chicken prices. The slaughtering earnings per chicken were affected. Looking ahead, we expect Wellhope’s full-year slaughtering volume to increase 30% YoY to 360mn chickens. The slaughtering earnings per chicken may rebound. Figure 1: Earnings forecast revisions (Rmb mn) Revenue Gross profit margin Selling expenses Selling expenses/revenue G&A expenses G&A expenses/revenue Financial costs Financial costs/revenue EBIT Net profit Net profit margin EPS (Rmb) Before 14,072 9.1% 436 3.1% 338 2.4% 52 0.4% 497 495 3.5% 0.60 2017E After Change 14,072 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 436 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 338 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 52 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 497 0.0% 427 -13.8% 3.0% -0.5% 0.51 -13.8% 2018E Before 16,786 8.7% 504 3.0% 403 2.4% 52 0.3% 544 570 3.4% 0.69 Source: Company data, CICC Research Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 3 After Change 16,786 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 504 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 403 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 52 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 544 0.0% 536 -5.9% 3.2% -0.2% 0.65 -5.9% CICC Research: August 25, 2017 Figure 2: Earnings review (Rmb mn) 1H16A 2H16A YoY HoH Revenue 5,052 6,818 11,871 6,000 18.8% -12.0% 14,072 42.6% Gross profit 535 608 1,143 503 -6.0% -17.2% 1,286 39.1% Operating profit 225 299 524 116 -48.6% -61.4% 512 22.6% Net profit 185 242 427 108 -41.6% -55.3% 427 25.3% Fully-diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.22 0.29 0.51 0.13 -41.6% -55.3% 0.51 25.3% 10.6% 8.9% 9.6% 8.4% -2.2pct -0.5pct 9.1% Operating margin 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 1.9% -2.5pct -2.5pct 3.6% Net margin 3.7% 3.5% 3.6% 1.8% -1.9pct -1.7pct 3.0% Gross margin 2016A 1H17A 2017E 1H as % of FY Source: Company data, CICC Research Figure 3: Earnings by quarter (mn Rmb) Revenue Cost Business tax and additional Gross profit Selling expenses G&A expenses Financial costs Asset Impairment loss Profit and loss from fair value change Investment income Operating profit Other income Other cost PBT Income tax Minority interest Net profit EPS (Rmb) Gross profit margin Selling expenses/revenue G&A expenses/revenue Financial costs/revenue Operating profit margin Income tax rate Net profit margin 1Q16 2,083 1,841 0 242 84 70 11 16 0 12 73 12 1 84 11 4 68 0.08 2Q16 2,969 2,676 0 293 100 70 9 0 -0.1 39 152 1 1 152 20 15 117 0.14 3Q16 3,428 3,110 0 318 100 70 11 16 0 21 141 4 0 144 17 16 111 0.13 4Q16 3,390 3,100 14 290 85 74 13 -13 0.0 42 159 10 2 167 36 0 131 0.16 1Q17 2,690 2,432 6 258 97 73 14 22 0.0 21 68 13 0 80 8 1 70 0.08 2Q17 3,310 3,065 6 245 115 74 17 -2 0.1 12 48 2 1 49 15 -4 38 0.05 QoQ 23.0% 26.0% 6.5% -5.3% 18.4% 1.2% 17.5% -107.3% 257.9% -40.7% -29.4% -85.2% 367.8% -39.4% 80.1% -432.4% -46.4% -46.4% YoY 11.5% 14.6% 1985.9% -16.6% 14.1% 5.1% 77.9% -1951.7% 156.7% -68.3% -68.5% 55.2% 57.1% -68.1% -24.7% -128.7% -67.7% -67.7% 1H16 5,052 4,517 1 535 185 141 20 16 -0.1 51.3 225 13 2 236 32 20 185 0.22 1H17 6,000 5,497 11 503 211 147 31 20 0 33 116 15 1 129 24 -3 108 0.13 YoY 18.8% 21.7% 1901.6% -6.0% 14.4% 4.5% 53.0% 28.6% 121.8% -35.2% -48.6% 9.5% -19.8% -45.5% -25.2% -115.7% -41.6% -41.6% 11.6% 4.0% 3.4% 0.5% 3.5% 13.6% 3.3% 9.9% 3.4% 2.4% 0.3% 5.1% 13.3% 3.9% 9.3% 2.9% 2.1% 0.3% 4.1% 12.1% 3.2% 8.6% 2.5% 2.2% 0.4% 4.7% 21.4% 3.9% 9.6% 3.6% 2.7% 0.5% 2.5% 10.6% 2.6% 7.4% 3.5% 2.2% 0.5% 1.4% 31.4% 1.1% -2.2pct -0.1pct -0.5pct 0pct -1.1pct 20.8pct -1.5pct -2.5pct 0.1pct -0.1pct 0.2pct -3.7pct 18.1pct -2.8pct 10.6% 3.7% 2.8% 0.4% 4.4% 13.4% 3.7% 8.4% 3.5% 2.4% 0.5% 1.9% 18.4% 1.8% -2.2pct -0.1pct -0.3pct 0.1pct -2.5pct 5pct -1.9pct Source: Company data, CICC Research Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 4 CICC Research: August 25, 2017 Figure 4: Key earnings forecast assumptions Unit: RMB mn 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E 6,703 6,125 6,214 7,004 8,077 8.3% -8.6% 1.4% 12.7% 15.3% 5,967 5,284 5,377 6,059 7,030 7.4% -11.5% 1.8% 12.7% 16.0% Feed business Revenue (+/-%) Cost (+/-%) Gross profit GPM 736 841 837 945 1,046 11.0% 13.7% 13.5% 13.5% 13.0% Material trade business Revenue (+/-%) Cost (+/-%) Gross profit GPM 1,526 1,847 2,589 3,107 3,729 -12.0% 21.1% 40.2% 20.0% 20.0% 1,440 1,754 2,478 2,974 3,569 -12.5% 21.8% 41.3% 20.0% 20.0% 85 93 111 133 160 5.6% 5.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Slaughter processing business Revenue (+/-%) Cost (+/-%) Gross profit GPM 575 1,119 2,088 2,715 3,394 28.4% 94.8% 86.6% 30.0% 25.0% 565 1,091 2,018 2,664 3,330 27.5% 93.0% 85.0% 32.0% 25.0% 10 29 70 51 64 1.7% 2.6% 3.4% 1.9% 1.9% Breeding business Revenue (+/-%) Cost (+/-%) Gross profit GPM 460 709 921 1,197 0.0% 54.1% 30.0% 30.0% 455 645 839 1,091 0.0% 42.0% 30.0% 30.0% 5 63 82 107 1.2% 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% Other business Revenue (+/-%) Cost (+/-%) Gross profit GPM Total Revenue (+/-%) Total Cost (+/-%) Gross profit GPM 336 145 270 325 389 114.7% -56.9% 86.9% 20.0% 20.0% 296 113 209 251 301 102.7% -62.0% 85.5% 20.0% 20.0% 40 32 62 74 89 11.8% 22.1% 22.8% 22.8% 22.8% 9,139 9,696 11,871 14,072 16,786 7.2% 6.1% 22.4% 18.5% 19.3% 8,269 8,696 10,727 12,786 15,320 6.2% 5.2% 23.4% 19.2% 19.8% 870 1,000 1,143 1,286 1,465 9.5% 10.3% 9.6% 9.1% 8.7% Source: Company data, CICC Research Figure 5: Valuation of comparable companies EPS (RMB) 2016A 2017E 2018E Ticker Share price Market Cap (Rmb mn) 2015A Heilongjiang Agriculture 600598.CH 11.42 20,301 0.37 0.41 0.48 0.52 30.8 27.6 23.8 21.9 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 11.7 12.6 14.0 14.6 Muyuan Foodstuff 002714.CH 33.54 38,855 0.51 2.00 2.21 2.25 65.2 16.7 15.1 14.9 11.0 6.9 5.2 4.1 16.9 41.0 34.5 27.4 Yisheng 002458.CH 25.03 8,445 -1.20 1.69 1.35 1.50 n.m 14.8 18.6 16.7 26.0 5.7 4.3 3.4 n.m 38.2 23.4 20.6 Dabeinong 002385.CH 6.20 25,424 0.17 0.22 0.30 0.39 36.0 28.8 20.5 16.0 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 8.2 9.5 12.1 13.9 Feedstuff Haid Group 002311.CH 18.23 28,730 0.49 0.54 0.82 1.01 36.8 33.6 22.2 18.0 5.7 5.1 4.4 3.7 15.6 15.1 20.0 20.8 New Hope 000876.CH 7.61 32,084 0.52 0.59 0.64 0.57 14.5 13.0 11.9 13.3 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 11.5 12.0 12.7 10.6 Wellhope Agri-Tech 603609.CH 9.36 7,780 0.38 0.51 0.51 0.65 24.8 18.2 18.2 14.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 12.5 15.1 13.4 15.0 Yuan Long-ping Hi-tech 000998.CH 22.98 28,867 0.39 0.40 0.64 0.81 58.8 57.6 36.1 28.5 12.3 5.1 4.6 4.2 20.9 8.9 12.8 14.6 Denghai Seeds 002041.CH 13.54 11,915 0.42 0.50 0.46 0.57 32.3 26.9 29.8 23.8 5.3 4.4 3.9 3.4 16.4 16.5 13.2 14.1 Company 2015A P/E ratio 2016A 2017E 2018E 2015A P/B ratio 2016A 2017E 2018E 2015A ROE(%) 2016A 2017E 2018E A-share covered companies Planting Breeding Seeds Animal Health Jinyu Bio-Tech 600201.CH 34.02 21,849 0.78 1.05 1.41 1.80 43.5 32.4 24.1 18.9 13.9 6.7 4.2 3.1 32.1 20.6 17.6 16.1 Ringpu Bio-Tech 300119.CH 13.43 5,432 0.27 0.33 0.42 0.56 49.2 40.9 32.1 24.0 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 6.9 7.0 8.4 10.4 China Animal Husbandry Industry 600195.CH 19.08 8,201 0.64 0.78 0.92 1.19 29.7 24.5 20.7 16.1 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 9.1 10.0 10.8 12.6 A-share coverage average 38.3 28.1 21.7 18.9 7.6 4.1 3.4 2.9 14.7 17.2 16.1 15.9 A-share coverage median 36.0 27.3 21.4 17.3 4.5 4.0 3.6 3.1 12.5 13.8 13.3 14.6 Source: Company data, CICC Research Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 5 CICC Research: August 25, 2017 Figure 6: Historical P/E and P/B Source: Bloomberg, CICC Research Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this report 6 2017/06 2017/03 2.0X 5.0X 2016/12 1.0X 4.0X 2016/03 2015/12 2015/09 2015/06 2015/03 2017/06 2017/03 2016/12 0 2016/09 0 2016/06 5 2016/03 5 2015/12 10 2015/09 10 2015/06 15 2015/03 15 2014/12 20 2014/12 25 20 2014/09 603609.sh 3.0X 2016/09 (Rmb) 15X 30X 2014/09 25 P/B 10X 25X 2016/06 P/E 603609.sh 20X (Rmb) CICC Research Important legal disclosures General Disclosures This report has been produced by China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited (CICCHKS). 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China Tel: (86-20) 8396-3968 Fax: (86-20) 8516-8198 Chengdu Binjiang Road (East) Branch 1st & 16th Floors, Shangri-La Center Block 9B, Binjiang Road (East) Chengdu 610021, P.R. China Tel: (86-28) 8612-8188 Fax: (86-28) 8444-7010 Xiamen Lianyue Road Branch 4th Floor, Office Building, Paragon Center 1 Lianyue Road, Siming District Xiamen 361012, P.R. China Tel: (86-592) 515-7000 Fax: (86-592) 511-5527 Wuhan Zhongnan Road Branch 4301-B, Poly Plaza 99 Zhongnan Road, Wuchang District Wuhan 430070, P.R. China Tel: (86-27) 8334-3099 Fax: (86-27) 8359-0535 Qingdao Middle Hongkong Road Branch 11th Floor, Shangri-La Center Block 9, Hongkong Road (M), South District Qingdao 266071, P.R. China Tel: (86-532) 6670-6789 Fax: (86-532) 6887-7018 Chongqing Honghu Road (West) Branch 1st & 10th Floors, Ourui Lanjue Center Block 9, Honghu Road (W), New North District Chongqing 401120, P.R. China Tel: (86-23) 6307-7088 Fax: (86-23) 6739-6636 Tianjin Nanjing Road Branch 10th Floor, Tianjin Global Trading Center 219 Nanjing Road, Heping District Tianjin 300051, P.R. China Tel: (86-22) 2317-6188 Fax: (86-22) 2321-5079 Dalian Gangxing Road Branch 16th Floor, Wanda Center 6 Gangxing Road, Zhongshan District Dalian 116001, P.R. China Tel: (86-411) 8237-2388 Fax: (86-411) 8814-2933 Foshan Jihua 5th Road Branch 12th Floor, Trend International Business Building 2 Jihua 5th Road, Chancheng District Foshan 528000, P.R. China Tel: (86-757) 8290-3588 Fax: (86-757) 8303-6299 Yunfu Xinxing Dongdi North Road Branch 2nd Floor, Service Building C1, Wens Science & Technology Garden, Dongdi North Road Xincheng Town, Xinxing County Yunfu 527499, P.R. China Tel: (86-766) 2985-088 Fax: (86-766) 2985-018 Changsha Chezhan Road (North) Branch 3rd Floor, Annex Building, Securities Tower 459 Chezhan Road (North), Furong District Changsha 410001, P.R. China Tel: (86-731) 8878-7088 Fax: (86-731) 8446-2455 Ningbo Yangfan Road Branch 11th Floor, Building Five, 999 Yangfan Road Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone Ningbo 315103, P.R. China Tel: (86-574) 8907-7288 Fax: (86-574) 8907-7328 Fuzhou Wusi Road Branch 38th Floor, Henglicheng Office Building No.128 Wusi Road, Gulou District Fuzhou 350001, P.R. China Tel: (86-591) 8625 3088 Fax: (86-591) 8625 3050 Xi’an Yanta Branch 21th Floor, Capitaland West Tower, No.64 Second Ring South Road West Section, Yanta District, Xi'an 710065, P.R. China Tel: (+86-29) 8648-6888 Fax: (+86-29) 8648-6868
1H results under pressure; feedstuff business has room to improve
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中金公司 - 1H results under pressure; feedstuff business has room to improve
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1H results under pressure; feedstuff business has room to improve
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