华泰证券-公装业绩拐点将现,家装持续放量

页数: 5页
行业: 装修装饰
发布机构: 华泰证券
发布日期: 2017-08-27
/ 2017 08 ( 27 / ) 11.03 ( ) (002081) 13.09~16.17 S0570515120002 021-28972085 baorongfu@htsc.com S0570516030001 021-28972066 huangji@htsc.com S0570516090001 010-56793964 wangdebing@htsc.com 8 24 YoY+4.35% 2017H1 460 4.35% 2C 910% 7.7% 2C 2017H1 1% 2016 2C (002081, ): 2017.04 (002081) 2017.03 (002081, ): 17 2017.01 3 6 0-20% 9 2017H1 4.93% 2C 1.38 2 94.98 YoY+0.94% 2.89 2017 6.9pct 021-28972059 fangyanhe@htsc.com 1 2017 8.96 2016H1 2017H1 4pct 2017H1 1.05 16.65% 0.79pct 2C 27.3% 1pct 1.01/0.82pct 0.25pct YoY+54% 2017H1 CFO 107% 2.89 12.5pct 10,000 10% 8,000 5% 2017 101 8 24 29 6,000 0% 4,000 -5% -10% 2,000 -15% 8/29 10/29 12/29 2/28 4/30 6/30 (0) 3.1 96 300 2016 Wind 2017Q1 Q2 30% 17-19 EPS0.73/0.94/1.15 CAGR+22% 13.09-16.17 2017 PE18X-22X “ ” ( A ) ( ) ( ) 52 ( ( ) ) ( ) 2,643 2,544 9.65-12.82 29,156 26,714 3.96 ( ) +/-% ( +/-% EPS ( PE ( ) ) ) 2015 18,654 (9.83) 1,602 (14.65) 0.61 18.61 2016 19,601 5.07 1,683 5.06 0.64 17.71 2017E 22,849 16.57 1,935 14.96 0.73 15.41 2018E 27,498 20.35 2,473 27.78 0.94 12.06 2019E 32,018 16.44 3,029 22.51 1.15 9.84 , 1 / | 2017 08 27 1 2 35.00% 100.00 30.00% 80.00 10.00 50.00% 8.00 40.00% 25.00% 60.00 20.00% 6.00 30.00% 40.00 15.00% 4.00 20.00% 2.00 10.00% 10.00% 20.00 5.00% 0.00% 0.00 0.00% 0.00 2013H1 2014H1 2015H1 2016H1 2017H1 2013H1 Wind 2014H1 2015H1 2016H1 2017H1 Wind 3 4 20.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 15.00% 4.00% 3.00% 10.00% 2.00% 1.00% 5.00% 0.00% -1.00% 2013H1 2014H1 2015H1 2016H1 2017H1 2014H1 2015H1 2016H1 2017H1 0.00% 2013H1 2014H1 2015H1 2016H1 2017H1 Wind Wind 5 6 70.00% 100.00 60.00% 80.00 50.00% 40.00% 60.00 30.00% 40.00 20.00% 20.00 10.00% 0.00% 0.00 2013H1 Wind 2014H1 2015H1 2016H1 2017H1 2013H1 Wind 2 / | 2017 08 27 PE/PB-Bands 7 PE-Bands 8 10x 25x 20x 30 15x 30x PB-Bands 2.5x 7.8x 6.0x 40 4.2x 9.5x 25 30 20 15 20 10 10 5 0 Aug 14 Feb 15 Wind Aug 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Feb 17 0 Aug 14 Feb 15 Aug 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Feb 17 Wind 3 / | 2017 ( ) 08 27 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 20,734 22,069 25,414 31,051 37,019 18,654 19,601 22,849 27,498 32,018 1,223 1,873 1,982 2,989 4,456 15,332 16,358 19,091 22,890 26,588 16,642 17,849 20,807 25,041 29,157 486.77 216.06 251.87 303.11 352.94 297.28 306.85 357.71 430.49 501.25 258.37 310.32 361.74 435.35 506.91 95.23 175.33 204.63 245.34 284.98 446.90 475.48 616.92 742.45 800.45 154.87 194.77 227.31 272.54 316.58 33.34 64.95 52.35 14.97 (3.59) 2,321 1,670 1,836 2,073 2,303 355.61 388.21 388.21 388.21 388.21 4,071 4,753 4,681 4,609 4,538 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 145.90 186.76 186.76 186.76 186.76 1,108 1,004 940.16 872.15 802.13 1,887 1,975 2,273 2,911 3,572 89.78 91.02 91.02 91.02 91.02 9.79 24.32 24.32 24.32 24.32 2,874 3,657 3,650 3,646 3,644 1.02 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 24,805 26,823 30,095 35,661 41,557 1,896 1,997 2,296 2,934 3,594 15,512 16,666 17,490 20,565 23,409 289.83 301.70 346.83 443.17 542.92 ( ) 1,077 1,160 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,606 1,696 1,949 2,491 3,051 11,134 11,698 13,653 16,369 19,014 3.34 12.20 14.03 17.92 21.96 3,301 3,808 3,837 4,195 4,395 1,602 1,683 1,935 2,473 3,029 546.48 14.24 514.20 514.27 514.24 2,015 2,149 2,397 2,998 3,640 42.21 10.41 10.41 10.41 10.41 0.91 0.64 0.73 0.94 1.15 504.27 3.84 503.80 503.86 503.83 16,059 16,681 18,004 21,079 23,924 129.35 173.00 187.03 204.95 226.91 1,762 2,643 2,643 2,643 2,643 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 158.83 158.83 158.83 158.83 158.83 6,699 7,153 9,102 11,575 14,604 (9.83) 5.07 16.57 20.35 16.44 8,617 9,969 11,904 14,377 17,406 (15.56) 4.66 15.13 28.05 22.68 41,557 (14.65) 5.06 14.96 27.78 22.51 17.81 16.55 16.45 16.76 16.96 24,805 26,823 30,095 35,661 EBITDA EPS ( ) (%) (%) ( ) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 81.92 1,101 633.48 836.09 1,277 1,606 1,696 1,949 2,491 3,051 94.96 109.51 71.25 71.63 71.82 33.34 64.95 52.35 14.97 (3.59) ROE ROIC (%) (%) (145.90) (186.76) (186.76) (186.76) (186.76) (1,798) (871.13) (1,253) (1,554) (1,656) 8.59 8.59 8.47 8.99 9.46 18.60 16.89 16.26 17.20 17.40 24.01 24.76 24.16 25.72 26.95 64.74 62.19 59.82 59.11 57.57 6.97 10.22 3.03 2.59 2.28 1.34 1.32 1.45 1.51 1.58 1.33 1.31 1.44 1.50 1.57 291.78 288.40 (0.04) 0.07 (0.03) (1,639) (49.34) 187.48 186.76 186.76 0.80 0.76 0.80 0.84 0.83 259.33 222.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.07 1.08 1.18 1.20 1.18 1.40 1.43 1.51 1.52 1.50 0.61 0.64 0.73 0.94 1.15 0.03 0.42 0.24 0.32 0.48 3.26 3.77 4.50 5.44 6.58 18.61 17.71 15.41 12.06 9.84 3.46 2.99 2.50 2.07 1.71 13.44 12.60 11.30 9.03 7.44 1,540 118.04 (0.72) 0.00 0.00 160.73 291.04 186.76 186.76 186.76 1,038 (406.54) (712.44) (14.97) 3.59 1,057 82.60 (1,160) 0.00 0.00 11.61 (31.80) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 881.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (30.66) (1,338) 447.65 (14.97) 3.59 (530.28) 650.25 108.52 1,008 1,467 ( ) ( ) ( ) ) ( PE ( ) PB ( ) EV_EBITDA ( ) , 4 / | 2017 08 27 © 6 300 6 300 20% 5%-20% -5%~5% 5%-20% 20% 228 1 / 210019 28 A 18 100032 86 25 83389999 / 86 25 83387521 86 10 63211166/ ht-rd@htsc.com 4011 86 755 82493932 / ht-rd@htsc.com 86 10 63211275 ht-rd@htsc.com 24 86 755 82492062 / 518048 18 86 21 28972098 / E 23 / 200120 86 21 28972068 ht-rd@htsc.com 5
公装业绩拐点将现,家装持续放量
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华泰证券 - 公装业绩拐点将现,家装持续放量
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公装业绩拐点将现,家装持续放量
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