华泰证券-管理提效,联营企业趋势将好转

页数: 4页
行业: 机械行业
作者: 章诚 肖群稀
发布机构: 华泰证券
发布日期: 2017-08-27
/ 2017 08 ( 27 / ) 7.6 ( ) (000530) 9.00~10.80 S0570512070051 0755-82492802 xiaoqunxi@htsc.com 2017 ( 39.11% 10 6996 S0570515020001 021-28972071 zhangcheng@htsc.com 20.64% 2889 0.115 /+7.54% 1026 440 15.6%/ 021-28972081 guandongqilai@htsc.com 4.38%/ 2017 5 7 · · 2 0755-82493570 huangbo@htsc.com 1 9826 · 0.72 — D 18.47%/ ): 2016 2017.04 (000530):2017 2016.12 (000530): 2015.12 2.62 10.93%/ 1 (000530, 2 3 8788 16% 4868 /-19% 2889 7.4 1200 2034 5086 /-39% 6 7,000 11% 6,000 6% 5,000 1% 4,000 -4% 3,000 -9% 2,000 -14% 1,000 -19% 8/29 10/29 12/29 2/28 4/30 6/30 (0) 20% /-5.3% 2.8 /+1.6% 3581 1755 20% 28% 7-11 50% 300 Wind 2017~2019 3.9 0.28 21 25 29 0.36 0.46 PE 2018 25~30 27 20 2.38 3.12 16 9~10.8 ( A ) ( ) ( ) 52 ( ( ) ) ( ) 856.49 587.89 6.69-12.55 6,509 5,373 3.86 ( ) +/-% ( +/-% EPS ( PE ( ) ) ) 2015 1,608 12.75 129.95 12.57 0.15 50.09 2016 1,779 10.70 178.63 37.47 0.21 36.44 2017E 2,135 20.00 238.14 33.31 0.28 27.33 2018E 2,520 18.00 311.60 30.85 0.36 20.89 2019E 2,923 16.00 393.22 26.19 0.46 16.55 , 1 / | 2017 08 27 1 2 Wind Wind 3 4 Wind Wind PE/PB - Bands 5 PE-Bands 20x 50x 40x 20 6 30x 60x PB-Bands 1.5x 3.5x 2.8x 25 2.1x 4.1x 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 Aug 14 Feb 15 Wind Aug 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Feb 17 0 Aug 14 Feb 15 Aug 15 Feb 16 Aug 16 Feb 17 Wind 2 / | 2017 ( ) 08 27 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 1,331 2,082 2,502 3,175 3,886 1,608 1,779 2,135 2,520 2,923 244.79 679.72 927.18 1,273 1,727 1,310 1,459 1,708 2,016 2,338 671.42 759.05 833.18 1,037 1,197 12.59 17.76 21.31 25.15 29.17 22.76 52.98 51.29 61.71 73.70 80.10 81.56 89.69 98.27 105.23 ( ) 44.22 95.14 93.51 117.39 133.45 187.05 200.96 224.22 249.46 271.83 259.10 323.86 419.05 476.46 521.76 0.13 4.60 6.45 6.97 6.85 88.22 171.66 177.32 209.85 233.72 17.12 17.65 20.00 20.00 20.00 2,752 2,901 2,877 2,802 2,736 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,220 1,310 1,280 1,290 1,287 128.91 173.74 171.60 220.00 260.00 449.91 509.42 620.68 641.39 616.84 129.59 172.11 237.01 324.11 411.51 158.42 154.71 149.88 144.99 140.12 7.46 39.10 10.00 10.00 10.00 923.30 927.21 826.09 725.68 692.05 1.11 23.03 0.56 0.56 0.56 4,082 4,984 5,378 5,977 6,622 135.95 188.18 246.45 333.55 420.95 1,216 1,373 1,543 1,800 2,045 4.73 6.25 8.32 11.20 14.15 406.79 82.60 45.00 60.03 58.78 56.90 131.22 181.93 238.14 322.36 660.40 839.08 942.26 1,128 1,302 1.27 3.30 0.00 10.75 13.57 472.63 488.97 540.93 613.03 685.55 129.95 178.63 238.14 311.60 393.22 153.01 293.08 272.95 293.01 286.35 174.16 223.58 299.28 397.07 489.40 0.00 160.00 160.00 160.00 160.00 0.36 0.29 0.28 0.36 0.46 153.01 133.08 112.95 133.01 126.35 1,369 1,666 1,816 2,093 2,331 66.26 69.59 69.59 80.34 93.91 360.17 611.78 856.49 856.49 856.49 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 630.27 1,023 777.98 777.98 777.98 1,107 1,249 1,858 2,170 2,563 12.75 10.70 20.00 18.00 16.00 2,648 3,248 3,492 3,804 4,197 18.48 32.81 37.71 36.75 26.96 6,622 12.57 37.47 33.31 30.85 26.19 18.52 18.03 20.00 20.00 20.00 8.08 10.04 11.15 12.37 13.45 4.91 5.50 6.82 8.19 9.37 17.65 15.96 22.79 30.82 41.32 33.52 33.43 33.77 35.01 35.20 6.04 12.30 12.12 10.46 9.31 (128.91) (173.74) (171.60) (220.00) (260.00) 1.09 1.52 1.62 1.76 1.90 (128.20) (115.76) 0.87 1.28 1.34 1.49 1.63 4,082 4,984 5,378 5,977 EBITDA EPS ( ) (%) (%) ( ) 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E (50.57) (7.71) 93.66 124.68 208.02 131.22 181.93 238.14 322.36 406.79 44.44 46.87 55.81 65.99 71.04 0.13 4.60 6.45 6.97 6.85 30.76 (48.60) (113.80) ROE ROIC (%) (%) (44.85) 48.39 13.46 63.16 28.20 (236.40) (264.41) 138.88 229.03 255.11 0.45 0.39 0.41 0.44 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.37 2.08 2.25 2.26 2.19 2.24 1.95 1.92 1.95 1.92 60.69 339.76 222.17 55.90 31.41 (10.47) 3.49 46.46 131.26 170.29 218.56 258.60 33.30 706.29 14.91 (8.18) (8.74) 22.60 (37.60) 15.03 (1.25) (1.88) 0.00 160.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.15 251.61 244.71 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (47.43) 47.98 (60.14) 392.42 (244.71) (0.12) (6.93) (6.86) (253.83) 434.02 247.46 345.53 454.40 ( ) ( ) ( ) ) ( PE ( ) PB ( ) EV_EBITDA ( ) 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.46 (0.06) (0.01) 0.11 0.15 0.24 3.09 3.79 4.08 4.44 4.90 50.09 36.44 27.33 20.89 16.55 2.46 2.00 1.86 1.71 1.55 24.23 18.88 14.10 10.63 8.62 , 3 / | 2017 08 27 © 6 300 6 300 20% 5%-20% -5%~5% 5%-20% 20% 228 1 / 210019 28 A 18 100032 86 25 83389999 / 86 25 83387521 86 10 63211166/ ht-rd@htsc.com 4011 86 755 82493932 / ht-rd@htsc.com 86 10 63211275 ht-rd@htsc.com 24 86 755 82492062 / 518048 18 86 21 28972098 / E 23 / 200120 86 21 28972068 ht-rd@htsc.com 4
管理提效,联营企业趋势将好转
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华泰证券 - 管理提效,联营企业趋势将好转
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管理提效,联营企业趋势将好转
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